According to a report by the Finance Ministry, “India has flattened the Covid-19 curve to a great extent with early containment measures supported by enhanced health infrastructure”. Adding that India has, “one of the lowest death rates amongst affected countries. Recoveries are increasingly outgrowing active cases”.
It stated that green shoots have appeared after the lockdown restrictions were lifted. The report said, “These green shoots have a conducive policy environment to grow further and nudge the economy early on the path of economic recovery and growth”.
“Early green shoots of economic revival have emerged in May and June with real activity indicators like electricity and fuel consumption, inter and intra-state movement of goods, retail financial transactions witnessing pick up,” it added.
Like IMF June’s forecast, the report by the ministry predicted a 4.5% contraction for India in FY21. The report highlighted the increase in e-way bills, increased railway freight, toll collection on highways, improvement in purchasing managers’ indices and the revival of GST collections. But stated that these numbers were comparatively lower than that of the previous year.
It said, “The lock-down and social distancing measures have had an adverse effect on the economy as there is an unavoidable trade-off between flattening the infection curve and steepening of the recession curves.”
It added, “The loss of economic output from more than two months of lock-down was first triggered from the supply side as labour stayed away from work. The demand side caused further loss of output as consumption of goods and services dependent on customer mobility fell”.
According to the report, “India has reduced its doubling rate of infections from the initial 4 days at the time of lock-down to 7 days in early April to 26 days as on June 27, flattening the curve to a great extent. Without the lockdown, assuming doubling every 7 days, the number of confirmed cases would have been 3000% higher than the actual number as on June 27”.