“Crossed The Peak Of Coronavirus Caseload” Reports Finance Ministry, Economic Recovery To Pick Up Soon?

Ministry of Finance

The finance ministry in the September economic review report said that the country has “crossed the peak of coronavirus caseload”. The ministry also stressed the fact that as the country is easing restrictions that were imposed to check the spread of the coronavirus to bring back normalcy in people’s lives and to make s turn in the economy “consequent demand resurgence is palpable in many sectors”.

The monthly report from the finance ministry also says, “Data for the 14-day period from September 17 to 30 suggests that India may have crossed the peak of Covid-19 caseload. During this period, the seven-day moving average of daily positive cases has steadily declined from about 93,000 to 83,000 while the seven-day moving average of daily tests has risen from about 1,15,000 to 1,24,000.”

India marks as one of the worst-hit countries by the COVID-19 pandemic. The virus spread rapidly since the first case was logged in on the first of January, within the masses in every sector of the society. The government was forced to extend the imposed lockdowns for several weeks before the start of the unlock program which saw a surge in COVID-19 cases. India has logged in more than 6.62 million coronavirus cases which resulted in the deaths of more than 1 lakh people. India follows the United States of America closely who stands in the top spot as the worst-hit country in the world by the coronavirus.

Although the country has passed some stages on unlocking and the people are now coming back to their normal routine, the finance ministry report hints that the pandemic is far from over in the subcontinent.

The report- Finance Ministry’s Monthly Economic Review — September, 2020 – also adds, “Yet, the declining positivity rate at all-India level sets the stage to further push up the frontiers of economic recovery. For this, all stakeholders need to get into the act as remaining restrictions on access and mobility are further eased. India reports the highest number of active COVID cases as on date. Growth in active cases fell to -0.4 percent as on September 30 as compared to 1.65 percent as on August 31 with the recovery rate at 83.5 percent as on September 30.”

The report also highlights the State-wise recovery rate. States like Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu, in a report on 30 th of September calculated a recovery rate of 90 percent among the COVID-19 victims. Some other states like West Bengal, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh Gujarat, and Rajasthan, also have charted recovery rate of more than 80 percent.

Data from the finance ministry report says, “Case fatality rate continued to decline to 1.6 percent, with major hotspot states witnessing a declining trend. COVID-19 testing has been scaled up significantly since June with Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Goa, Delhi, Assam, Jammu, and Kashmir. Tripura and Tamil Nadu showing good progress.”

The report also brings in some positive aspects of the Indian economy. The Indian economy got a major hit due to the coronavirus pandemic. The official report released in August showed that the Indian GDP had contracted by 23.9 percent during the April-June time period. The report hints at the recovery of the Indian economy after the lockdown was put to an end. The report says, “Economic indicators allude to a steady recovery in almost all sectors, with some sectors shooting above their previous-year levels as well. This is despite headwinds of increasing COVID cases in non-metro cities and rural areas and rising food prices.”

The report also adds, “The growth outlook has improved significantly in September with GST collections swelling to six months high at ₹ 95,480 crores, registering a positive year on year growth of 3.9 percent.”

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for a new initiative during the pandemic called “Atmanirbhar Bharat”. The initiative was to focus more on developing India’s own necessity within the country rather than importing it. The finance ministry’s monthly review says, “Positive results fro the implementation of AatmaNirbhar Bharat (AB) package and unlocking of the economy are evident in India’s high-frequency real sector indicators of September.”

Data from the report also points out that the automobile sector which was struggling even before the pandemic and during which the sector was brought down to their knees have started to recover. The report says, “the indicators of demand are gaining momentum with sales of passenger vehicles, two and three-wheelers regaining previous year levels in August, signaling pent-up demand as well as the rise in the private mode of transportation due to Covid-19.”