One of the UK’s renowned economics consultancies, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), has predicted that India will become the third economic superpower by 2037 if it maintains its growth momentum.
CEBR’s annual publication ‘World Economic League Table’ traces the macroeconomic developments globally and country-wise. The report presents an outlook for 191 countries till 2037. Its latest edition, released on Monday, warned the world is moving toward recession.
For the Indian economy, the report predicted the country’s economy to grow to $ 10 trillion.
It said: “In 2035, we forecast that India will become the third $10-trillion economy. Although there are political factors that could hold India back, it has demographics on its side.”
It also commented on India’s ranking as per GDP based on PPP.
It positions India as the second most populous country globally after China. Its GDP per capita (adjusted to Purchasing Power Parity) is estimated to be at $8,293 in 2022, due to which it falls under the category of lower middle-income countries.
China is an upper-middle-income country with having PPP-adjusted GDP per capita of $21,291 as of 2022.
“Over the next five years, the annual rate of GDP growth is expected to average 6.4 percent, after which it is expected to average 6.5 percent in the subsequent nine years. This growth trajectory will see India rise from fifth place on the World Economic League Table in 2022 to third in the global rankings by 2037,” it said.
Pandemic Aftershocks:
According to the report, India witnessed the third-highest death toll globally because of the coronavirus. Inevitably, India was under a lockdown that hampered economic activity severely, with output shrinking by 6.6 percent in the fiscal year 2020-21.
GDP Of India in FY 2021-22: In the next fiscal 2021-22, with the receding effect of the pandemic, a sharp rebound in economic activity, and a boost in domestic demand, GDP grew by 8.7 percent, resulting in the fastest-growing major economy in the world.
GDP of India In FY23: “We still expect growth in the fiscal year 2022-23 to remain robust, at 6.8 percent, despite decelerating global demand and tightening monetary policy to curb inflationary pressures. This, in turn, would bring output 8.4 percent above 2019 levels,” the report said.
The economics consultancy predicted the Chinese economy to grow by 3.2 percent in 2022, falling well below forecast, all thanks to lockdowns associated with its Zero Covid policy.