First Advance Estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) expect the country’s economic growth for the current financial year 2022-23 at 7 percent, compared with 8.7 percent last year.
The Finance Ministry uses the insights provided by the NSO for preparing the budget for the upcoming financial year 2023-24, which Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will table on February 1.
The nominal GDP growth during 2022-23 is pegged at 15.4 percent, lower than 19.5 percent in 2021-22, per NSO. India’s net national income is set to increase by 6.6 percent in FY23 against 8.5 percent in FY22.
In the press note, the first advance estimates of National Income 2022-23, the NSO said, “Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 157.60 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2021-22 of Rs 147.36 lakh crore, released on 31st May 2022.”
The agriculture sector will mark a growth of 3.5 percent in FY 2022-23, NSO estimated, up from the 3 percent expansion seen in the previous financial year.
Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communications, and Services related to the Broadcasting industry exhibited maximum development at 13.7 percent among 8 core industries compiled by the NSO, followed by Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services at 9 percent.
The growth in the Mining and quarrying industry slumped to 2.4 percent this fiscal from 11.5 percent in the previous fiscal. Similarly, the manufacturing sector recorded a lackluster growth of 1.6 percent, tumbling badly from the 9.9 percent growth recorded in the last financial year.
The NSO estimates are relatively higher than the growth projection by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at 6.8 percent.
In April 2022, RBI had downward revised the GDP growth estimate from 7.8 percent to 7.2 percent and further to 7 percent in September 2022 in the wake of unabating geopolitical tensions and the tightening of global financial conditions.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), too, trimmed the growth projection to 6.8 percent from 7.4 percent pegged earlier in July 2022.
The World Bank, however, sees GDP growth for the current fiscal climbing to 6.9 percent from its earlier estimate of 6.5 percent.
The Asian Development Bank estimates India’s growth at 7 percent for 2022-23.