2018 growth outlook : India’s recovery sustains 7.3% growth forecast by Asian Development Bank

India while standing at the growth forecast of 7.3% for the current fiscal year has continued on a robust growth path, said Asian Development Bank (ADB) in its flagship report on Wednesday.

It is expecting a growth of 7.6% in India in the coming fiscal 2019-2020

While maintaining the follow up for its annual economic public, The Asian Development Outlook 2018, ADB pointed depreciation of the rupee and dynamic international market as the headwinds in the growth of India.

The Manilla based bank quoted, “Depreciation of the rupee and volatile external financial markets pose challenges, as does accelerating inflation though tighter fiscal policy will help quell inflationary pressures.”

Most Asian developing countries have witnessed stabilised growth owing to rising crude oil prices were balanced by stronger domestic demands. Pointing India, it quoted that it has managed to remain on a robust growth path.

As reported by Outlook India, “But escalating trade tensions will test the region’s resilience, underscoring the importance of efforts to bolster trade ties among its countries. Its growth forecasts are unchanged at 7.3 per cent for 2018 and 7.6 per cent for 2019 as the temporary effects of the demonetisation of large banknotes and the introduction of the national Goods and Services Tax abate as expected,” stated ADB

Projections by other stakeholders

  • Fitch, one of the “Big Three credit rating agencies” in its last week forecast projected a 0.4% higher growth for the current fiscal at 7.8%.
  • According to the estimation of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India’s growth for the current fiscal year could be 7.4%
  • The government predicted 7.5% growth which is slightly higher than RBI.
  • The International Monetary Fund lowered its projection from 7.4% to 7.3%. 
  • The growth forecast by India Ratings was cut down to 7.2%

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley while addressing the chief’s of public sector bank on Tuesday said that Indian economy is capable of sustaining 8% growth given the appropriate measures are taken to formalise economy coupled with inclusive growth. ADB’s growth forecast seems comparatively low than some of the other projections.


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