The rhetoric of climate change, emphasizing the increased frequency and severity of natural disasters such as flash floods, wildfires, and cloudbursts, continues year after year. Climate change’s progression will be significantly influenced by how poorer countries pursue economic development. This will have profound implications for national development strategies, global development, and international security.
For instance, water scarcity, intensified by climate change, could cost certain regions up to 6% of their GDP, drive migration, and ignite conflict. The combined effects of growing populations and increasingly erratic and uncertain water supplies will exacerbate the situation. Without prompt action, water will become scarce even in regions currently abundant in water and significantly worsen conditions in areas already facing a looming water crisis, such as the Sahel in Africa and the Middle East. This will severely impact the socio-economic and political fabric of these regions.
Additionally, by exacerbating conflicts and driving migration, climate change significantly impacts economic growth in regions dependent on rainfall. Episodes of drought and floods have triggered waves of migration and spikes in violence within these countries.
Conversely, there are numerous instances where development projects have led to climate disasters, prompting social movements nationwide to safeguard the environment.
However, climate change tends to exacerbate tensions in already war-torn regions. Evidence from the past has shown that it contributes to increased conflict, though often through indirect pathways. Various contextual factors—especially socioeconomic conditions, governance, and political elements—interact and play a significant role in transforming climate change into conflict risks.
For example, shifting rainfall patterns can intensify existing tensions, as seen in Syria, where a drier climate significantly contributed to the civil war. While the Syrian conflict was not caused solely by climate factors, these factors have been a major source of turbulence over the years, especially in the absence of strong institutional frameworks.
Climate change contributes to increased conflict, often through indirect pathways, making the most vulnerable populations even more at risk. No group is more vulnerable than those who have had to flee their country due to conflict and are now experiencing the effects of a hostile climate. As a result, people displaced by both conflict and the consequences of climate change and environmental degradation are extremely unlikely to be able to return home.
Climate change affects the most vulnerable regions more disproportionately
The relationship between conflict, climate change, and displacement is complex and intertwined. Therefore, understanding the conflict and providing a resolution requires a context-specific approach.
Across the fragile regions increased food insecurity, urbanization and competition over resources – particularly water. When combined with other planetary crises such as land degradation and over exploitation of the environment, climate change can make an already fraught situation untenable.
In fragile regions, increased food insecurity, urbanization, and competition over resources—particularly water—compound the challenges. When combined with other global crises such as land degradation and overexploitation of the environment, climate change can render an already difficult situation untenable.
Ninety percent of the world’s refugees come from countries already impacted by the climate emergency and/or with the least capacity to adapt to an increasingly hostile environment. This is particularly crucial because, while climate change affects every part of the earth, its impacts are not felt equally. Unfortunately, those states that have contributed the least to global emissions are often the ones most affected by the climate crisis.
The lack of resources to adapt and prepare exacerbates the suffering, particularly in states burdened by poor governance, sluggish development, and insufficient social investment in crucial areas such as education and health. Consequently, preparedness and adaptation become even more challenging for marginalized communities. Despite this, effective preparedness and mitigation can play a pivotal role in addressing many drivers of conflict and fostering peace.
Hence, the precursors to conflict and violence can be seen in prolonged droughts, unpredictable rainfall patterns, and the resulting threats to food security, exacerbated by ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Coupled with governments’ inability to fulfill their social obligations and provide essential services in many areas, these conditions have led to the emergence of non-state actors.
Sub-Saharan Africa
According to the data from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, international displacements in sub-Saharan Africa reached a record 19.5 million in 2023, accounting for nearly half a percent of the global total. Over the past five years, figures for the region have consistently risen. Conflict and violence triggered 13.5 million movements, the highest in the past 15 years.
Source: IDMC-GRID-2024, Global Report on Internal Displacement.
Additionally, disasters led to six million displacements across the region, primarily caused by severe flooding in the Horn of Africa following years of drought or Cyclone Freddy affecting Malawi.
Although disasters and conflict are identified as distinct triggers for displacement, their impacts often overlap, resulting in prolonged displacement. Combined, conflict and disasters left 34.8 million people living in internal displacement across the region by the end of 2023, accounting for 46 percent of the global total.
Middle East and North Africa
The rise in disaster displacement in the Middle East and North Africa in 2023 was largely due to a series of high-magnitude earthquakes that hit Syria, Morocco, and Iran, collectively triggering over 920,000 displacements.
Source: IDMC-GRID-2024, Global Report on Internal Displacement.
In Syria, the increasing frequency of high-magnitude earthquakes, with epicenters in neighboring Turkey, demonstrates how conflict and disasters combine to heighten displacement risk. Millions of Syrians are living in extreme vulnerability, and the humanitarian situation in the northwest was dire even before the earthquakes struck.
As in previous years, floods and winter storms destroyed tents in displacement sites, leading to further displacements. This added to the misery of vulnerable populations, as many essential buildings, including health and education facilities, had already been damaged by the prolonged social conflict.
Therefore, addressing the tensions fueled by climate change requires a multi-faceted approach and coordinated efforts to promote development in the pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
This involves integrating strategies to mitigate climate change impacts, enhance resilience, and foster sustainable development. Key elements include improving governance, investing in education and healthcare, bolstering infrastructure, and supporting economic growth in vulnerable regions. Such comprehensive measures are essential to effectively combat the intertwined challenges of climate change, conflict, and displacement.