This is the era of restoration and we have earned this acknowledgement after paying a hefty sum: struggling through Pandemics, frequent storms or forest fires, losing 68% of Biodiversity in 50 years (Living Planet Report 2020, by WWF), displacing lives etc.
But history finds it relevance only when the humankind can learn from past mistakes, maybe correct them a bit and be sure not to repeat them in future.
Apart from growing disparities with lessening resources, arid-Nationalism, abandoned multilateralism and other problems to human survival from Climate change, we have started addressing them, if not at least set our priorities straight: Sustainability as the way ahead.
According to COP21 Paris Climate Agreement and others in line, we have buckled ourselves up for limiting Global temperatures to be well within 2 degrees C (if not 1.5) from pre-Industrial times.
But tackling Climate change isn’t easy. One can be cautious ahead but how can one correct the past misdoings when they are in plenty and still revered at times.
Well Man has one thing by his side that can help him fulfill his desires and finish a few unfulfilled tasks. Technology has proved to be Humankind’s dearest friend.
From Renewables to negating CFCs is worth appreciating but the newer ideas like Solar Radiation Management is breath-taking.
Bill Gates has recently collaborated with Harvard University to undertake the dimming of Sun as a method to prevent increasing global temperatures by regulating or deflecting about 1%–2% of the incoming solar radiation in one go.
It may be achieved using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering involving dispersal of reflective aerosol particles in upper atmosphere.
However, this needs constant replenishment of aerosols to stay cool as some of these particles get caught up in rain clouds and fall down, staying only upto a week in place.
The underlying problem with this set-up is the build-up of greenhouse gases trapping heat and warmth on the planet, again causing the increased temperatures.
Also, it needs constant monitoring, a thermostat will be required to check the thickness of Aerosol layer to conform to the needs of planet.
While critiques doubt Bill Gates’ dimming of Sun to combat climate change on grounds of ethics or the consequent lesser need for change, there are few others taking the fight on real grounds.
Environmental Defense Fund has helped address climate mitigation and adaptation by setting up the Climate Parliament, a cross-party network of legislators with reverence for nature
EDF even helped Mahindra & Mahindra, India’s leading manufacturer of utilities to become a carbon neutral company by 2040.
Under global competition Global Cooling Prize, Gree Electric Appliances, Inc. of Zhuhai with partner Tsinghua University; and Daikin with partner Nikken Sekkei Ltd. emerged victorious after developing the prototypes imposing five times (5X) lesser climate impact than a casual AC unit.
Upon estimation, such technologies can prevent 132 GT of CO2 -equivalent emissions till 2050 and mitigate over 0.5°C of global warming by the end of the century.
Other challenges such as TechEmerge Resilience India 2020, a joint aim of World bank and NDMA welcomes top innovators to fix the twin objectives of dealing with strengthening the disaster response to pandemic and even suggest long term solution to hit climate change.
The world’s first retro-fit emission control device for diesel generators has been created by Chakr foundation. It can capture 90% of PM emissions from the exhaust air without reducing energy efficiency, finally to be converted to inks and paints.
During Covid, Cellzyme Biotech from Coimbatore has crafted an enzyme used in making antibiotics at room temperature without using solvents – a threat to air quality.
A Compendium of Clean Technology Innovations in India contains over 25 clean technology entrepreneurs who are tackling climate change in their own sustainable ways.
History has a lesson: Beware what you seek
A 2007 study found that, after Volcano Pinatubo (the inspiration for Bill Gates’ dimming of Sun experiment) blew up, the temperature of the world’s air fell – along with the dwindling amount of global rainfall.
In fact, precipitation levels were recorded to be the lowest between 1979 and 2004, leading to an increase in cases of moderate to severe droughts.
Other studies have reasserted that once we began managing the solar radiation, we’ve to keep doing it. Any sudden termination in our activity can increase the global average surface temperature by 4º C within 30 years. Now this can be catastrophic for everyone involved.
Geo-engineering rooting in India:
Recently, IISc scientists from India have simulated the scenario by injecting 20 million tonnes of sulphate aerosols into the Arctic stratosphere.
They found that this caused the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), a belt of low-pressure winds that is crucial to bring India its summer monsoons, to shift southwards and reduced rainfall in entire northern hemisphere (including India) by 12%.
Indian climate and summer monsoon rainfall are co-dependant on each other and Indian economy is a gamble on the dynamics of seasonal summer monsoon rains.
Interestingly, other studies could show that solar radiation management (SRM) schemes can even help alleviate extremes in the intensity and frequency of rainfall.
Apart from this study, DST has also been funding a “geoengineering climate-modelling research programme” since 2013.
A study published last month calculated the cost to launch a working solar geoengineering programme to be $3.5 billion by about 2030 and another $3 billion every year in order to maintain it.
But this cost of solar geoengineering is estimated to be lesser than the costs incurred by climate change impacts such as droughts, floods, heat waves, sea level rise etc.
Climate Solver is a WWF global initiative to develop, promote a widespread use of innovative low carbon technologies and offer sustainable solutions to enhance energy access to everyone.
Composing of small and medium enterprises selected based on their cutting-edge technologies, projected to lower carbon emissions by a staggering 20 million tonnes annually (ten years onwards).
This eliminates the fear involved in SRM that it may cause the Earth’s population to loosen up their efforts against Climate change considering it a farce and further aggravate the problem in long run.
Indian climate scientists could use inferences drawn from these developments and the Earth system model, currently being developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology to perform solar geoengineering simulations and gather knowledge on the effects of geoengineering on the Indian climate.
Is there any new Ice age possible?
Although there is no consensus regarding the exact time when the Little Ice Age began but it is known to extend between 14th-19th century.
It came after the medieval warm period, which is known to freeze the Baltic Sea twice, Caspian Sea rose furiously, glacial ice expanded across the Alps destroying village livelihoods and overall temperatures falling 2 degrees lower than usual.
It further led to famines, hypothermia, bread riots and the rise of despotic leaders across Europe.
Even the cooling events in Himalayas were co-terminus with the cooling events in Europe. Last time this happened, it happened along with the “Grand Solar Minimum” i.e. when the least Solar activity is recorded in 11 year old Solar life cycle.
Experts debate but according to NASA, there is no impending “ice age” or “mini ice age” if there’s any reduction in the Sun’s energy output in the next several decades.
But will the Grand Solar Minimum, if happens, help to offset Climate change?
Yes, to a certain limit- about -0.1 W/m2, equivalent to the impact of approximately three years of current carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration growth.
Many studies have suggested that although a grand Solar minimum might cool the planet as much as 0.3 degrees C, this may, at best, slow down the ongoing Global warming but not reverse human-caused perils to Nature.