The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Friday that the forecast for October to December shows a higher probability of drier than average conditions in the Horn of Africa as the most severe drought for over 40 years appears certain to persist.
Rainfall in drought-affected areas like Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia is expected to be significantly lower than the average.
“It pains me to be the bearer of bad news when millions of people in the region have already suffered the longest drought in 40 years,” said Guleid Artan, the director of the WMO’s regional climate center for East Africa.
“Sadly, our models show with a high degree of confidence that we are entering the 5th consecutive failed rainy season in the Horn of Africa. In Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, we are on the brink of an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe,” he added.
Previously, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and other humanitarian agencies have raised concerns over the number of people as high as 50 million in the region who are suffering from alarming food insecurity in the present year.
Workneh Gebeyehu, executive secretary of the IGAD, said: “I solemnly renew our call to national governments, donors, humanitarians, and development actors to adopt a no-regret strategy and help us overcome this crisis.”
Due to the drought, along with the unprecedented effects of the Ukraine war, like the rise in food and fuel prices, several parts of Africa have been negatively affected.
Carla Drysdale, a spokesperson for the World Health Organization (WHO), told a Geneva press briefing: “The WHO is very concerned about this situation. It does lead to many families taking desperate measures to survive. “
Why rainfall is so crucial?
The rainfall between October and December accounts for roughly 70% of the annual total in parts of the Horn of Africa, particularly the eastern region.
However, rainfalls are likely to be delayed in many parts of the eastern Horn of Africa, which exacerbates the risk of rainfall deficits.
According to the United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund, there has been a significant increase in the number of children suffering from the devastating effects of a prolonged state of drought across the Horn of Africa, rising from 7.25 million in February to around 10 million during the period February–April 2022.
Approximately 1.8 million children in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia need urgent treatment for life-threatening malnutrition. Furthermore, records of internal displacement in the search for food and water are at an all-time high.