After the Election Commission announced the poll schedule for Delhi Assembly elections, the IANS/C-Voter Delhi Tracker survey showed that the incumbent Aam Aadmi Party government is very strongly placed to retain power in the national capital.
Results of the pre-poll survey conducted in the first week of January released on Monday indicate that AAP led by Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal would repeat its 2015 Assembly election performance and win a lion’s share of the votes polled, if elections are to be held in the first week of January. The sample size of the survey is 13,076.
This is the first leg of the survey.
The 70-member Delhi Assembly will go to the polls on February 8. The results will be declared on February 11.
The IANS/C-Voter Delhi Tracker survey projections show that AAP would garner 53.3 per cent of votes and end up with close to 59 seats, while the BJP with 25.9 per cent of votes may have to remain content with just eight seats.
The Congress is nowhere in the poll sweepstakes and is likely to get only 4.9 per cent of the votes polled. In absolute terms, the Congress is likely to end up with just four seats if elections were to be held in the first week of January.
The survey results show that AAP and BJP will maintain consistent voting patterns in central Delhi, outer Delhi and trans-Yamuna regions.
The survey consisted of asking respondents, “Whom will you vote for if Vidhan Sabha elections are held today?”
The seat projection ranges put AAP winning a minimum of 54 seats to a maximum of 64 seats. The BJP could win a minimum of three seats to a maximum of 13 seats, while the Congress can win anything between zero and six seats.
Delhi Assembly elections are considered prestigious, given that it is the national capital and the centre of the Union government. AAP had defeated BJP in 2015 and the saffron party has been itching to regain power. It matters all the more to the BJP, which has in recent times been losing out in Assembly elections.
In the outgoing Assembly, the AAP had won 67 seats which came down to 62 after five of its legislators were disqualified. It lost one more seat in a bypoll after the seat was vacated by an AAP legislator who won in the Punjab Assembly polls.
For the BJP to get back into the driver’s seat, it looks like disappointment is in store yet again. In 2015, the BJP managed to win just three seats and later won a bypoll, taking its final tally to four.
Congress, which failed to win even a single seat in 2015, can look to win no more than three seats in the current scenario, if the results of the survey are any indication.
With a few more weeks remaining before Delhi actually votes, it is clear that the focus will remain on the AAP and the BJP.