The marginal seats or the swing seats held with a small majority in the elections have become critical for both the contesting parties in the battlefield in Gujarat. The campaigning of the second phase of elections in Gujarat ended yesterday with Prime Minister Narendra Modi the star campaigner for BJP embarking on a seaplane ride to gather the attention of the people towards the developments done by BJP. And Rahul Gandhi ended the campaigning with a press conference.
The Gujarat elections are being regarded as one of the most important elections after the 2014 general elections. The results of this election have become a prestige point for both BJP and Congress. BJP is fighting hard to keep the throne to itself, while Congress under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi after a long time in what seems like a come back for the party, is giving a tough competition to BJP.
Gujarat has already passed the first phase of choosing its next government and the second phase of the elections will be held on 14 Dec. In the first phase which was held on 9 Dec 89 seats of Saurashtra, Kutch and south Gujarat went to polls. While, of the total 182 seats, the remaining 93 will face the voting tomorrow. The results for both the phases will be announced on 18 Dec along with the results of the Himachal Pradesh assembly elections which were held on 9 Nov.
As per the reports, despite vigorous campaigning by both the parties, compared to earlier data, the turnout for 54 seats in Saurashtra and Kutch was down by 5.4 percent, while in South Gujarat it was down by 3.1 percent.
BJP has been ruling in Gujarat for 22 years and has managed to maintain its stronghold on 50 seats since the last four elections – 1998, 2002, 2007 and 2012. Of these 50 seats, 20 are in north Gujarat, 15 in Saurashtra and Kutch, 10 in south Gujarat, and 5 in central Gujarat. In the last two decades, these 50 seats have contributed magnificently to maintain the rule of bJP in Gujarat from past two decades.
For a party to win and form the government in Gujarat, a party has to get a minimum of 54 seats in its pocket. On an average, the 50 seats that are in the BJP’s court, form 42 percent of the seats for the BJP in the state Assembly elections. While in unlike BJP, Congress managed to get only four seats in its court in the last four elections in Gujarat. Among these strongholds of Congress, three are reserved seats, on which the luck has been in favor of the party as it has fared better than the BJP.
If looked at the previous data, the retention rate of the BJP has been declining. Retention ratio is defined as the number of seats a party is able to retain in the next cycle of elections. In 2002, BJP retained 87 seats, and in 2007, the rate increased with just one seat making it 88. The seats came down to 74 in 2012. The 50 seats that are traditionally with the BJP has given a high retention ratio to the party. While the Congress on the last four elections has managed to retain 20-odd seats.
If compared between the two, the retention ratio of Congress has been dicier as it increased in 2007, it again dipped in 2012. However, the loss ratio of Congress is much higher than that of the BJP. Since 1995, when the BJP took over as the ruling party, the trend of the assembly elections have been more or less the same. As per the records, the seat tally for BJP since 1995 has ranged between 115-125, while for Congress it has been between 55-60. Another trend that is being followed from past two decades is that the BJP is maintaining a lead of 10 percent vote share over Congress.
However, it seems like BJP is set to change the trend this time, as throughout the election campaigning in Gujarat, the party has been confidently claiming that it will nail 150+ seats this time. Though it is tough to say anything about the swing seats in this elections, that might change the future of either of the party, as the seats have been changing hands in each election, compared to previous elections. Compared to the 1998 results, 76 seats had different winners in 2002 and the number increased by 12 in the 2012 assembly elections.
Among the 88 seats that are the swing seats in Gujarat, 48 are in the rural and 40 in the urban areas. In these critical seats, the voters threw out the sitting MLA and elected a new member instead. Also, another significant fact that makes these swing seats critical for both BJP and Congress is that of these 88 seats, both Congress and BJP 41 seats and there 26 such seats which a=have alternatively chosen candidates from BJP and Congress. BJP won half such seats in 2012, while the Congress and others won the rest.
It is being speculated that apart from the communal votes that the Congress has to an extent been successful in getting it in their pockets, these swing seats will also be a major deciding factor for the results of the elections. As per the political experts, the retention ratio is likely to reduce further in this elections and the number of swing seats will increase to a sizeable number from 88. According to the records, in 2012, 94 seats were retained by the BJP and the Congress combined, while 88 seats changed hands.
BJP has its strong foothold over almost 50 seats, but since the Patidars have extended its support to the Congress, BJP is a bot nervous over 20 seats from its stronghold, which are dominated by the Patidars. The Congress had agreed to fulfill the demand of the Patidars by granting them a reservation. The opposition party has suggested a new formula under which the Patidars would get the reservation and it will not even change the 50 percent cap set by the Constitution of India. The Patidars, agitation leader Hardik Patel, after much discussion agreed to the suggestion of the Congress and extended the community’s support to the party to defeat the BJP in Gujarat.
Apart from the Patidars, Congress has also managed to get the support of the Dalits, OBCs, Adivasis and the Muslims also. While the BJP has suffered the most with the loss of the Patidars as they were one of the oldest vote banks of the BJP. However, even though there has been a dent in the BJP vote bank, the party is confident of nailing more than 150 seats of the total 182 seats.
While the loss the BJP might have to suffer in the 20 seats out of its 50 stronghold seats, as they are based in Saurashtra, Kutch and Central Gujarat which is the hub of the Patidar agitation for reservation. Other than these 20 seats, the BJP might be dicey about the results in 10 other seats also in south Gujarat as the party is facing strong criticism due to demonetization and the goods and services tax (GST). As per the experts “BJP’s performance across the swing seats is likely to determine its tally in the 2017 polls.”
The political experts are also of the opinion that whatever may be the results of the Gujarat polls, but the moves taken by Congress to woo in the trio-youth leaders from the Patidars, Dalits and the OBCs in Congress, will serve the Congress well in other states. Congress President-elect Rahul Gandhi reached out to Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor, and Jignesh Mevani, young men spearheading mass movements for securing the rights and demands of their communities will be beneficial for the party in the long run.
The Patidar agitation spearhead, Hardik Patel who extended its support to the party in the last but has been the star campaigner for the Congress in Gujarat. The huge rallies organised by the Patidar leader has managed to draw huge crowds often larger than Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rallies. On the other hand Alpesh Thakor, who was initially backed by the BJP to stand against the Patidar leader Hardik Patel and oppose the demand for reservation, also officially joined Congress and is also contesting the polls.
While the Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani, who also extended its support to the Congress is expected to put the Dalit votes in the pockets of the opposition party. Though the Dalits have been traditionally voting for the Congress but many were still colored with the saffron colour. Usually, the political parties make an alliance with other political parties big or small to further strengthen its base, but the Congress chose otherwise. The Congress instead chose to make an alliance with communal parties.
This new experiment of the Congress will bear what fruits for the party who is fighting hard for its survival as after the BJP has pledged for a Congress Mukt Bharat is on a ventilator, will be known only on 18 Dec when the results for the Gujarat assembly elections will be declared along with the results of the Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections which were held on 9 Nov.