Fri. Mar 29th, 2024
image for representation

The upcoming assembly election in Madhya Pradesh is going to be a tough battle between Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress with a slight threat to both from the BSP, SP and other smaller parties including the independent candidates.

The BJP government who is in power in the state for 15 years is facing an anti-incumbency sentiment to some extent. Although the opinion polls have suggested that the current CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan is still people’s first choice for the top job. He has been able to maintain his image of ‘vikas purush’ for 13 years, the chances of winning for BJP might be grim.

The people are seeking change and it is possible that a large number of people even do so. In 2003 elections too, there was a large swing of votes owing to which BJP stormed to power.

 The BJP is also facing the heat from the upper-caste people who have even protested against amendments to the SC/ST Prevention of Atrocities (POA) Act passed by Parliament in July.

In September this year multiple districts across MP were shutdown in support of protests which was called by various upper caste outfits like SAPAKS party backed by Rajput Karni Sena.

According to reports, the upper-caste vote base of BJP in the state are perhaps moving away from the party.

Threatened by this a BJP leader said the party had to take corrective measures to prevent backlash from upper-caste voters.

A senior Madhya Pradesh BJP leader was quoted as saying, “The anger among the ‘savarnas’ (upper castes) is too deep-rooted to be contained by any small measures. It has to be big impact-making steps by the Centre to prevent them from landing in the fold of Congress out of vengeance”.

Last year the state government also came under the lens when on June 6, 2017, police in Mandsaur fired at farmers demanding better prices for their harvest. Six farmers were killed in the police firing, leading to violent protests which spread to neighboring districts. In the retaliation, the protestors burned a local factory.

Although the protests forced the Chouhan government to launch the Bhavantar Bhugtan Yojana (BBY) in October 2017, Congress President Rahul Gandhi was not allowed by the administration to meet the farmers. Under the BBY the registered farmers will be paid the difference between the minimum support price (MSP) and a modal price. The amount would be calculated by taking into consideration the average price of a crop in the state and two neighboring states.

This year Rahul Gandhi staged a rally in Mandsaur on June 6 to mark the first anniversary of the farmer protests which perhaps has created a positive image for the Congress and a negative image for Chouhan’s government.

Unemployment is another issue in the state which is possibly the case in the entire country.

According to data from the Labour Ministry, Madhya Pradesh had an unemployment rate of 40 percent in urban areas and 44 percent in rural areas in 2015-16. The overall unemployment rate was around 43 percent.

Sensing the people’s disgruntlement towards the incumbent government the opposition party has also targeted the BJP government over this issue and has promised people a speedy creation of jobs, if elected.

Congress even seems to be playing a ‘soft Hindutva’ as was seen in the campaign by party President Rahul Gandhi in the state who was portrayed as a ‘Shiv bhakt’. The Congress had also undertaken Ram Van Gaman Yatra which was meant to trace the route taken by Ram when he was on his way to exile. The party had also targeted BJP government that it was unable to fulfill the promise of tracing and developing the mythological route Of Ram to his exile which it made when it had come to power.

Although the Congress might have some advantage over the current government, the BJP believes people would vote on the basis of development work undertaken by the Chouhan government and its successes in the state over the last 15 years.

Also, as per surveys done by India Today-Axis My India, Chouhan remains a highly popular candidate.

Chouhan is the preferred chief ministerial candidate for 46 percent respondents which is 14 percent points more than the closest competitor Congress’ Jyotiraditya Scindia.

By fatima

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