In a dramatic turn of events in the poll bound Gujarat, BJP‘s confidence who has been ruling the state for 22 years, seems to be in muddy waters.
Some time back, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, being the national face of BJP, the party was quite confident about continuing its reign in Gujarat. However, the recent events are depicting a different story and maybe a totally different result.
Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi has been seriously participating in the election campaign in Gujarat and is personally monitoring the course of action. BJP under the leadership of Vijay Rupani has recently been fearing anti-incumbency in the state, especially from the Partidars, OBC’s, Dalits and the Tribals.
Taking advantage of this Congress playing a smart move had invited all the community leaders who are unhappy with the ruling government, to join hands with Congress and contest the polls. Although majorly all the communities are against BJP, as for now, OBC leader Alpesh Thakor is the only one who has officially announced its support to Congress.
The Patidars who are one-fifth of the vote bank of Gujarat under the leadership of Hardik Patel has been protesting against the BJP government for a few years now, demanding Other Backward Classes status for the land-holding Patidar or Patel caste. Patidars hold 12% of the population in the state and for decades, they have been the backbone of support for the BJP and its Hindutva ideology in Gujarat.
Congress is trying its best to woo in the agitated Patidars to come to their side, however, Hardik Patel has maintained an aura of suspense. The fact that he had welcomed the Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi when the leader kickstarted the election campaign from Saurashtra and was also spotted with Rahul during the rally, gives an indication that he might join the party. However, the statement of Patel has always left everyone in dilemma. Patel has more than once said that he may or may not support the Congress, but he will definitely work towards defeating BJP.
After the recent course of dramatic events in the poll-bound Gujarat, the political equation in the state is changing very frequently. Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) suffered a major setback on 21 Oct, when two of its key members, Varun Patel and Reshma Patel, officially joined BJP. Adding to the drama, one of the PAAS member, Narendra Patel, just after few hours of joining BJP, in a press conference, revealed that BJP had offered him 1 crore to join the party.
Talking about a rally held by Hardik Patel on 22 Oct in Madheli village, 20 km away from the place where Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a rally on the same day, Saurabh Patel said that these controversies meant nothing to them, they only believed in Hardik. Saurabh, 26, a farmer and marketer for a private seed company said that “We don’t care about Varun or Reshma or any of the others – Hardik is capable and he alone is important to us. We went to the Madheli rally to support farmers who are protesting a power line running through their fields, but we also went as Patidars to support Hardik and his movement.”
Agitated Saurabh lashing out at BJP said that he was not at all surprised at the revelations of Narendra Patel. He said that “BJP is a number-one goonda party of liars and could have offered the bribe, it is not a conspiracy of the Congress.”
These remarks of the angry Patidars totally makes one believe that the community is angry with the ruling BJP and will do anything to defeat the party even if it means joining Congress. However, another comment made by the same Saurabh also forces one to think, what exactly is the stand of the Patidars. Along with criticising BJP and calling it a party of liars, Saurabh also said that “Right now we are discussing voting against the BJP, but who knows? Eventually, we will vote for whoever fulfills our demands.”
It is not just the Patidars that are saturated with the incumbent government in Gujarat, but also the Dalits, the farmers, the Tribals and the OBC’s. Himanshu Patel, a farmer from Madheli village, 20 km from Vadodara city said expressing his problems and discontentment with the ruling BJP said that “Twenty years ago we used to get electricity all day. Now we just get it for eight hours a day and surviving on agriculture has become impossible. Every house needs someone to work a private job, and even those are so difficult to get.”
Madheli’s former deputy sarpanch Jayesh Patel said that “This GST [Goods and Services Tax] has made everything more expensive than before, and running our households has become harder. When tractors are levied with 12% GST and luxury cars with just 6%, you know this government works for industries, not farmers.”
Taking a dig at two of the recent projects announced by Narendra Modi, one of the bullet train from Ahmedabad to Mumbai and the Rs 3,000 crore giant statue of Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel on the Narmada river, another farmer, Karansinh Solanki questioned that “Farmers don’t need a bullet train. And does the Statue of Liberty in America serve any purpose? Why would we need a Statue of Unity?”
Appreciating the initiatives of Hardik Patel, Ashok Patel another farmer from Madheli complained that neither the ruling government nor its officials pay any heed to the problems faced by the farmers. Speaking about the high-voltage power line that the state-owned Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation began erecting last month through farmland in 10 villages in Waghodia block, he said “We want them to pay us fair market rates for the land they are taking up, but they have refused to offer us anything beyond compensation for our crop loss.”
He further added that they even went to the BJP MLA and Deputy Chief Minister, Nitin Patel taking their complaints, but he turned a deaf ear to them. It was only Hardik Patel that listened to their problems, without talking about elections or politics, he said.
But all these agitated farmers and angry Patidars, even though saturated with the incumbent government, have still not ruled out the option of voting for BJP. Himanshu Patel said that “Many of us have been supporters of the BJP for years, so if the party solves our problem, we will still vote for it. But this party has become very arrogant, so we still need the Congress to be a strong Opposition.”
These remarks make it seem like that these people are only using the Congress as a strong opposition party to scare the ruling BJP that if the government does not pay attention to their problems, they might even consider voting for Congress, though ultimately they might not.
A government employee in Pipaliya who did not wish to reveal his identity said that “We know we have to vote against BJP, but it doesn’t mean we will vote for Congress. We could vote for an independent candidate or NOTA, let’s see. It depends on what the village and the community decide.”
Meanwhile, the urban Patidars of the middle-class hold a completely different ideology. They neither connect with their rural counterparts nor with Hardik Patel, who claims to be fighting for the rights of the Patidars. In fact, they are even questioning about the real motive behind the protest and demand that Hardik Patel is heading.
Arvind Patel, a businessman from Mehsana Nagar Society who runs an engineering machine parts factory said that “Hardik Patel was a zero, and now he’s trying to be a hero, but it is clear that the Congress is behind him. Majority of the Patidar caste is hard-working and well-settled, so who is Hardik fighting for?” “We are a community that has always supported the BJP, so even if there are problems, we cannot vote for anyone else,” said his son Sagar Patel.
These statements and remarks are building a lot of suspense as to the outcome of the Gujarat assembly polls. As the Patidars hold a major section of Gujarat and their support could change the course of events for both BJP and Congress and the Gujarat poll result will play a major factor in deciding the path for the Lok Sabha elections due in 2019.