As the election campaign gets fierce in the desert state of Rajasthan, the political speculations have started to surface. In a recent opinion poll done by ABP-CVoter, it was revealed that if the assembly elections are held now, Congress would win a big majority with 142 seats out of 200, whereas, BJP would get limited to 56 seats. However, in the previous elections in 2013, BJP had won 142 seats in a landslide victory in 200 member assembly, whereas, Congress could manage only 21 seats.
The vote share also has a drastic difference according to the latest opinion poll. Congress is suggested to get 49.9% of the votes, whereas, BJP will get only 34.3% votes in the upcoming Rajasthan elections.
The current government of Vasundhara Raje is facing a huge anti-incumbency factor in Rajasthan and that is one of the biggest reasons behind Congress being hopeful of returning to power after a gap of 5 years. Sachin Pilot has been very active on the ground since the last assembly elections and that is evident with the fact that 36% of voters support Sachin Pilot as the first choice to become chief minister of Rajasthan. Current CM, Vasundhara Raje is the choice of 27 percent voters in the state, whereas, former Rajasthan CM and current general secretary of Indian National Congress, Ashok Gehlot is favored by 24% voters as the next CM of Rajasthan.
BJP and Congress, both realize that Rajasthan is one of the most important states for them to conquer and that is the reason behind both the parties trying their best to reach out to voters before the elections. Vasundhara Raje has just concluded a 40 day long Gaurav Yatra across the state, whereas, Sachin Pilot has been holding meetings throughout the state. Rahul Gandhi had also started the election campaign a few days back from southern Rajasthan.
Among the factors that might lead to the downfall of Vasundhara Raje government, the biggest remains anti-incumbency. Rajasthan has had a trend of electing a new government for every tenure for a while now. Though, the government in Rajasthan is trying to counter the anti-incumbency wave with the popularity of Narendra Modi and by advertising the various schemes that it has launched. BJP is also facing the heat from leaders like Manvendra Singh, who have left the party in the last few years and might become a possible threat to party fortunes in some parts of the state.
With the announcement of election dates by the election commission, the election campaign has become more aggressive with all parties trying to woo the voters. Rajasthan will go in elections on 7th December and the results will be announced on 11th December. Congress has stated that the party is open to an alliance with like-minded parties, whereas, Mayawati’s BSP is going to contest the elections alone. Rajasthan has also got a couple of new parties in Abhinav Rajasthan Party and Janta Sena, which might impact the vote share of bigger parties in some parts of the state.