Voting in Rajasthan underway to elect its next government in Jaipur. The counting of votes will take place on December 11 along with other state assembly elections– Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram and Telangana polls.
On last 4 consecutive terms from 1998 to 2013, Rajasthan has never voted for an incumbent government in the state. The last time a party won back-to-back assembly elections in Rajasthan was in 1993 when the BJP won the state polls.
Though Bhartiya Janta Party led by Vasundhara Raje is the state claims of repeating the same feat in 2018. While its major Opponent Congress eyeing a comeback in the state. Congress expects the electors to unseat the incumbent Vasundhara Raje government. Pradesh Congress Chief Sachin Pilot said ‘misrule’ of Raje Government will unseat BJP.
There have three assembly constituencies in Rajasthan which can be called the bellwether seats. Whoever won these seats in the past, ended up forming the government in the state. Interestingly, All three begin with the alphabet K Kekri, Kapasan and Kumbhalgarh.
Of these three, Kapasan and Kekri assembly seats in Rajasthan have the best record as the bellwether seats in elections since the first elections way back in 1951. Both Kapsan and Kekri have voted for a party that goes on to make government in the state in every election except one, 13 out of 14 Rajasthan assembly election results went with Kapasan and Kekri seats.
Kapasan
The Congress-ruled Rajasthan continuously till 1977, when the Janata Party defeated it, banking on an anti-Indira Gandhi wave. In 1977 Rajasthan assembly election Kapasan voted for Janata Party candidate Mohan Lal.
Kapasan has voted for a party that went on to rule Rajasthan in every election since 1957 13 assembly polls on a trot.
Kapasan always voted for a Congress candidate every time till 1977 except the first election to Rajasthan assembly till in 1951, when a BJS candidate won from this seat. But then, Kapasan was called Badi Sadri Kapasin.
Bharatiya Jan Sangh (precursor to the BJP) leader Bhairon Singh Shekhawat became the chief minister of the first non-Congress government in 1977. The Shekhawat government fell in 1980. Fresh elections were held, and Kapasan voted for Congress Government so does and Rajasthan voted for a Congress government. Next change came in 1990 when Kapasan elected Janata Dal candidate Shyama Kumari. The BJP formed a government in Rajasthan with the support of the Janata Dal in 1990.
The Rajasthan government was dismissed following demolition of Babri Masjid in Uttar Pradesh in 1992. A fresh election was held in 1993 when Kapasan and Rajasthan voted for a BJP government. Shekhawat became the chief minister again.
The BJP and the Congress have shared Kapasan (3-2) seat in the last five Rajasthan assembly elections, that is, since 1998. The same is also true about the ruling party in Rajasthan.
Kekri
Except for 1967 Rajasthan assembly election, Kapasan has always voted for the party that went on to form a government in Rajasthan. A Swatantra Party candidate won Kekri seat in 1967 but the Congress formed the government in Rajasthan. This remains the only exception for Keri’s as the bellwether and a pacemaker seat in Rajasthan.
Kekri elected Janata Dal candidate Shambhu Dayal in 1990. The BJP formed a government in Rajasthan with the support of the Janata Dal.
In 1993 Rajasthan assembly election, Shambhu Dayal won Kekri seat as a BJP candidate after the Janata Party disintegrated. And, this was the last time when Kekri voted for an incumbent candidate.
Kumbhalgarh
In 10 of 13 Rajasthan assembly elections since 1951, Kumbhalgarh assembly seat has voted for a party that formed the government in Rajasthan. The three exception election years were 1951 BJS won Kumbhalgarh seat and the Congress formed the government, 1962 Swatantra Party won this seat, and 1990 when the Congress won the seat but the BJP formed the government in the state.
Besides, these three assembly seats, there are six other constituencies in Rajasthan that have voted for the same party as the ruling one in the last six elections since 1990. These seats are, Suratgarh, Sujangarh, Chamu, Sheo, Deoli-Uniara, and Raniwara.
It will be interesting to see the outcome of these ‘Bellwether’ seats. The State to elect a new assembly is polling today, December 7. A total voter turnout of 41.37% recorded till 1 pm.
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