21 Aug 2017 was marked as the beginning of the golden period in the history of Tamil Nadu Politics when both the EPS and OPS factions announced a merger.
Former Tamil Nadu Chief Minister O Panneerselvam and the current Chief Minister E. Palaniswamy chanting the slogan of ‘one mother, one party, one family’ from the party office in Chennai on Monday finally announced the merger of both the factions of AIADMK. Following the merger, Panneerselvam swore in as the Deputy Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu.
However, the merger has been accomplished but maintaining the unity and discipline in the party will be a challenge for the leaders. The OPS faction had demanded that former Chief Minister Jayalalithaa‘s close acquaintance Sasikala and her family members be removed from the party. The EPS faction had promised to fulfill the demand however following the merger the promise seems to be a different topic altogether. With the nephew of Sasikala, TT Dhinkara still in the game the problems for AIADMK is far from over.
19 legislators belonging to the TTV Dhinakaran camp submitted letters to the governor on Tuesday stating that they have no confidence in the chief minister, Edappadi K Palaniswami. P Vetrivel, a Dhinakaran loyalist said that “at least a dozen MLAs were taken to a resort in neighboring Puducherry. More are coming. I cannot say if that will happen tonight or tomorrow.”
CR Saraswati, a spokesperson for Dhinakaran’s camp, told ET the move to withdraw support was necessary “to ensure that the current chief minister is removed and a new chief minister, who can work keeping in mind the party’s unity and taking every party worker along, is reinstated.”
MK Stalin, the leader of the opposition party DMK, pointing out a similar situation that happened in Karnata wrote a letter to the Governor of Tamil Nadu, that the Governor of Karnataka at that time had called for the ruling party to prove its majority to continue to remain in power. Similarly the ruling party in Tamil Nadu, AIADMK should also appear for the floor test and prove its majority.
In his letter, Stalin mentioned that “22 legislators had withdrawn their support to Palaniswami. The legislators withdrawing support to Palaniswami pointed out to a precedent in the Balachandra Jarkiholi and others versus BS Yeddyurappa case, in which the Supreme Court reversed the disqualification of dissenting legislators in the Yeddyurappa government. Back in 2010, MLAs in the Yeddyurappa-led government wrote the Governor H R Bharadwaj expressing their disillusionment with the government, much similar to the circumstance in Tamil Nadu now.”
The Governor of Tamil Nadu on Wednesday has asked the Chief Minister to prove his majority in the state assembly. Responding to the orders issued by the Governor, the CM replied with an application seeking disqualification of 11 MLAs, for which the Speaker disqualified the MLAs and the state high court upheld the move by the Speaker.
As per the prevailing situations, the total number of seats in Tamil Nadu Assembly is 243. After the demise of Jayalalitha one seat is vacant decreasing the total number of seats to 233. To clear the floor test the ruling AIADMK requires 117 seats. The combined strength of both the factions of AIADMK is 134, out of which 19 MLAs have rebelled against the party, supporting the Dhinakaran camp. Now with 19 legislators out AIADMK is short of the confidence of 2 MLAs.
Amid all the possibilities of another change in the political equation of Tamil Nadu, both the Chief Minister and the Deputy Chief Minister held meetings at the secretariat to discuss the way forward.
Since AIADMK is now an ally of the BJP, there are possibilities of the latter luring the rebel MLAs back to the party, like it had tried doing during the Gujarat Rajya Sabha polls. However, the much-calculated move taken during the Gujarat Rajya Sabha in order to win the third seat contested by Balwant Singh Rajput against Congress candidate Ahmed Patel, counter attacked BJP. This time the party will have to keep each step carefully, examining the effects of it properly. If BJP is successful in winning back the confidence of at least 2 MLAs back AIADMK will get the desired number to clear the floor test. But the party may face difficulties if it does not get the support of the requires MLAs.