According to ANI news reports, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, China and India were among the eight nations that were given a waiver to keep buying Iranian crude oil without facing any penalties, which are now likely to be provided with renewed waive by the US President Donald Trump administration.
In a note, a political analyst at Eurasia Group’s Global Macro practice, Henry Rome said, “Given OPEC+ production cuts and conditions in Venezuela, the oil market probably cannot absorb the loss of 1.3 million barrels per day of Iranian crude without a significant effect on domestic gasoline prices- a red line for US President Donald Trump.”
If the Trump administration renewed waivers, nations who will be importing Iranian crude oil would likely be required to reduce purchases.
Iranian exports, in that case, would likely fall between 900,000 on average of bpd and 1.1 million bdp through the waiver period from May to November.
The US envoy to Iran, Brian Hook, speaking on the renewal of waiver period, said, “We’re still currently under the existing waivers that expire on May 2. There will be an announcement on that in due course. We are not looking to grant any exceptions to our campaign of maximum economic pressure.”
Analysts have also predicted if the waivers were not been renewed the oil market would immediately disrupt. Banks, individuals and companies who are benefiting from Iranian crude oil waiver could possibly face the US sanction.