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COVID-19: IMF Predicts Worst Economic Recession Since The Great Depression, Global Depression To Sink By 4.2%

The sudden outbreak of coronavirus has not only affected our daily life style but also badly affected Indian and global economy. The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that COVID 19 has made global economic growth seriously unfavorable and rapidly deteriorating. According to the data from World Bank and IMF, it is assumed that in 2020, the world GDP is going to shrink by 4.2% and 3% respectively.

In India, the first case of corona virus was noticed on 30th January, 2020. And, from March 24, Prime Minister Narender Modi imposed lockdown of 21 days for the 1st time as they assumed that COVID-19 is going to end soon. But this lockdown period shifted ahead due to rapid spread of corona virus.

From the very first week of lockdown, many factories were closed and so many workers lost their jobs. The daily wagers, beggars, hawkers and workers from various large-scale and small-scale industries found it difficult to afford some money for food. Around 118 million of people lost their jobs only in the first two weeks of the lockdown. It has rendered a sudden and rapid increase in the number of unemployed people in India and at present, economists also believe that India is leading towards depression except recession.

The Indian economy was already in a bad state due to demonetization and GST and now corona virus outbreak has added fuel to the fire of Indian economy. Many economists are of this view that these lockdowns due to corona virus has affected economy more than GST & demonetization. It has not only declined the demand and supply of goods & services but also the declined the income of people.

In starting, it was thought that India is suffering from recession due to decline in economic activity in a few months. In recession, many businesses fail and many companies become bankrupt only for a small period of time and can be recovered. This situation of recession came in 2007-2008.

But in depression, the situation becomes so worse and can’t recovered soon. It also leads to wider spread social collapse, unemployment, homelessness, hunger and poverty. Now it is clearly visible that Indian economy is going to face extreme downturn of depression which can last for many years and it will be worse than recession. In past, there had been only one great depression in US history, which lasted for a decade from 1929 to 1939.

COVID-Recession-Graph

The current situation of Indian economy caused due to COVID19 is seeming worse than the situation caused by any war. The war causes increase in demand, but corona virus has rendered down demand for goods because many peoples are unemployed and others are getting low income with which they can demand for only necessary things.

Except health crisis, economic declination and rise in unemployment, there is also having a great loss to Indian market due to reduction in shares. And, till now, it is not lifting up.

The government should pay attention toward this situation for the earliest otherwise the situation will become more crucial and out of control. Though Government is reopening industries, companies, offices, schools & colleges, markets, public places, and also providing food for poor class people, but still they have to pay more attention towards how to slow down the rising unemployment. The government has also started a program in the field of self-dependence of India and it has benefited small-scale & cottage industries for getting development. And, it has also provided work to many people. It’s a great achievement for Indian economy and a step towards success. But the situation of Indian economy is very poor, so we all should have to stop it falling into depression at any cost for the earliest.