For a moment there, it felt like humanity had learnt to exist without wars and settle their scores amicably or via their diplomats stationed at the United Nations.
With the potential threats of using nuclear warheads any day and its subsequent deterrence and response, the world leaders seem to have understood the associated dangers of this asset.
But much to everyone’s awe and disgust Russian President Vladimir Putin February 22, 2022, stated the two separatist regions of Ukraine called Donetsk and Luhansk (together called Donbas) as independent.
An invasion-styled strike has begun which can possibly trigger one of the deadliest situations that Europe and the entire world has endured in the last few decades.
All this can yield is a pool of military and civilian deaths, with accelerated migration, humanitarian and economic crisis.
But within a matter of three months of COP 26 Climate summit and respective inherited ambitious pledges, this conflict has also created a bigger way to cause irreversible damage to the environment and also possibly negate the achievements made for the energy transition.
Stock market has been acting crazy, fuel prices are constantly rising, social and political security in the region and the world (spillover) is dwindling; all this creates an aura for an unrealized climate action.
Russian Invasion, economic sanctions and constricting Energy affordability:
Russia is a part of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) plus and a major fuel supplier for European landmass and beyond.
The European Union, Japan, the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand and Taiwan have introduced several measures to hit Moscow for its decision of military incursion into Ukraine.
With its stocks collapsing (MOEX index closed down 33%) and the Ruble sinking down below 7% against the US dollar, things are going to be difficult for Russia and the entire world.
Germany has already halted its certification to the infamous Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
“Gas prices became very high, and all of a sudden security of supply and price became the main subject of public debate”, explains an Expert of the region.
Supposedly, while people may experience shortages, it may seem to create a vacancy for the usage of Renewable energy.
But there can even be a backslide on the efforts made to decrease the use of fossil fuels releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, amidst the call for energy independence and security.
To fulfil their demands, European Union has increased their coal imports while Britain, Australia and China have stepped up their coal production.
A mine in Wales was recently given permission by the Coal Authority to increase its output by 40 million tons in the span of next two decades.
A Professor of Globalization at Oxford explains: “Governments will want to deprioritize renewables and sustainables, which would be exactly the wrong response”.
This blip will significantly stress the progress made in achieving clean energy and climate change targets worldwide, including India.
In 2018, India’s Gail and Russian Gazprom (world’s largest gas producer) signed a 20-year-agreement amidst the former’s interest in importing more gas from its counterpart.
Ukraine: A history of surrender
It is ironic that all this can become destiny for a nation that was the only nation post world war to have relinquished (in 1994) its heavy nuclear arsenal composed of 5000 units (3000 tactical nuclear weapons and 2000 strategic nuclear weapons), which was the third biggest in the world.
This was acted upon by Ukraine on the assurances of UK, US and Russian Federation.
But looking back now, one civilian laments: “We are being bombed and killed. We gave away the capability for absolutely nothing”.
Ukraine’s environment under threatening Russia’s fireworks:
It is not a hidden fact that war compounds the existing environmental problems.
A geologist at Kiev’s Institute of Telecommunications and Global Information Space: “Ukraine is standing before, first of all, an ecological catastrophe, more deep and dangerous than Chernobyl.”
Ukraine is a region enriched with 35 per cent of Europe’s biodiversity, a mesh of rivers including the Dnieper, Dniester etc. act as lifelines for several interests including food security and nearly 16 per cent of the country is blessed with forests.
Its geographic location has fallen prey to the rivalry between Russia and the West but it is this bane that is laden with extensive natural resources.
To an extent, experts have believed this Russia’s quest just to quench its thrust for gas reserves and minerals such as iron, titanium, coal.
Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia oblast (Kruta Balka area), Kirovohrad (Polokhivske field, Dobra area) and Donetsk (Shevchenkivske field) are full of Lithium fields not yet explored to even minimal capacity.
Mining the sites can open the chest of emissions in the heart of Europe besides their impact on soil and fertility.
These highly strained conflicts continue to require as well as burn vast amounts of fuel, increasing greenhouse gas emissions.
Previous war instances in the area have already degraded the crucial infrastructure creating inability for trash removal or sewage water treatment. This has led to an increased pollution in the Donetsk River and faecal coliform levels to rise in these unhealthy waters.
In all, the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources (MENR) of Ukraine before the current crisis designated 4,240 places as potentially dangerous: 2,160 sites as potentially explosive because of harboring methane content, 24 as radioactive hazards, 909 as hydro-dynamic hazards, and 34 as biohazardous.
The Ukrainian ministry in 2016 identified 35 sites where groundwater pumping has been stopped and waters confined. If released or leaked, such floodwaters can mix hazardous heavy metals like mercury, lead, and arsenic from the inactive and unmanaged mines into the groundwater through springs and percolation.
As per the government estimates, nearly 87,000 cubic meters of contaminated water will be discharged every hour if the mines in eastern Ukraine are not maintained.
With conflicts in motion, even the normal maintenance gets neglected or limited because of other set priorities.
In addition to this, Ukraine too suffered radioactivity during Chernobyl and has contained its contaminated waters. Any unheeded explosion or infrastructure breakage, coupled with a decent flow of rivers available in the country can lead to a disaster: the second Chernobyl.
This sort of landscape disruption, both of terrestrial and marine habitats from the use of weapons, military vehicles and aircrafts will be irreparable in the long time to come.
One can even think how the abandoned weapons in the periphery during and after the war can be picked up by the wrong hands i.e., for killing, terrorism or hunting the wild.
Open burning, detonation or infiltration of any kind can cause immediate damage to the ecosystem unless stopped now, indicating in full that an armed conflict can never be in anyone’s favor.
But Moscow has a history of denying any troubling irregularity against its stand, like it did with Chernobyl’s ill-fated Reactor No. 4.
In the context of Peloponnesian War, a famous thinker and Historian Thucydides wrote: “The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must.”
The above can justify whatever Russia is doing now but does that not mean humans to be the same savages we used to be, devoid of any learnings from our history of violence and uncountable losses?
Shall we continue to consider every nation an equal party or begin to unravel the powerful status enjoyed by only a few?
Can we still uphold the selective rights to Veto when lesser privileged nations continue to suffer?
Can we believe there is still time for humanity to save this crumbling world, either due to Climate change or our unflinching conflicts?